Locked and loaded for another edition of non-farm payrolls


The US jobs report is due at the bottom of the hour with the Canadian report out at the same time. The consensus is +205K with unemployment steady at 3.4%

Seasonally, the headline payrolls print is strong in February coming in above estimates 73% of the time and missing 27% of the time by 70k and 121k, respectively, on average, according to BMO.

The market is back to almost 50/50 on whether the Fed hikes 25 bps or 50 bps on March 22 but that’s more about what’s happening in the US banking sector than in economic data. If the numbers are hot and banks continue to struggle, it will really make the Fed’s job hard.

Given those risks, that brief window of 5% in 2-year notes has slammed shut with another 11 bps drop to 4.78% today.

In any case, the next move is all about the US data today. But also note that the Canadian jobs report is also out at the same time and — importantly — the Fed’s blackout window starts at midnight so if officials want to shape expectations (without leaking) they might want to do an interview.

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